Spot Rates Hit Two-Year Highs as Diesel Surge Meets Tight Capacity

Spot van rates climbed to $2.52 per mile in March, an 11-cent sequential increase that marks the highest level in two years, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. Reefer followed at $2.97 per mile, up 9 cents. Flatbed saw the sharpest move: a 37-cent jump to $3.09 per mile, the largest weekly increase in over a decade for the week ending April 4.

The driver is diesel. National fuel surcharges averaged around 40 cents per mile through most of 2025. By March 2026, that figure hit 60 cents — a 50% increase from baseline. Shippers using Uber Freight saw fuel surcharges climb from 40 cents per mile in February to nearly 70 cents in March, a 25- to 30-cent swing in four weeks.

"Linehaul rates were still under pressure through most of March, which tells you demand hasn't fully caught up yet," said Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT. The rate gains are fuel-driven, not freight-driven — at least not yet.

Why This Surge Looks Different Than 2022

The last time diesel spiked this hard was March 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Prices jumped 75 cents in the first week of that month. This year, following U.S. military action against Iran in February, diesel rose 96 cents in the comparable week.

But the freight market responded differently. In 2022, capacity was loose and spot rates kept falling even as fuel costs climbed. Brokers didn't need to pay compensatory rates to secure trucks. Carriers ate the fuel hit, and Avery Vise, vice president of trucking research at FTR Transportation Intelligence, believes that mismatch created much of the pain the industry endured over the next three years.

This time, capacity is constrained. Spot rates are rising in tandem with fuel costs because carriers have pricing power they didn't have four years ago.

"The big thing to recognize is that the freight market was cooling rapidly in early 2022," Vise said. "Brokers did not have to offer compensatory spot rates in order to get capacity four years ago. So, while diesel prices were going up more than a dollar a gallon, spot rates for dry van and refrigerated continued to fall week over week."

Now, with fewer trucks available, the fuel shock is translating directly into rate increases.

Capacity Shrinkage Is Real

Carriers shed roughly 10% of their driving workforce over the past three years, according to Mazen Danaf, principal economist at Uber Freight. They also cut tractor and trailer orders during the soft market. Driver employment continues to decline even as tractor orders have recently surged — a signal that carriers expect the tightening to persist and are preparing equipment ahead of hiring.

"This means that carriers were organically reducing both their equipment count and the labor count because of the soft market," Danaf said. He's been warning shipper customers that the supply-side tightening is running counter to normal seasonal patterns.

David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, described the environment as "constrained supply-side" with elevated rates causing routing guide failures. When contract carriers can't cover loads, shippers spill freight into the spot market, keeping demand and rates firm.

"We're in a constrained supply-side environment, elevated rates are causing contract routing guide compliance issues for shippers, and that's keeping spot demand high enough to keep that rate floor firm," Spencer said.

He noted end-of-quarter urgency among shippers in late March contributed to rate volatility across all three equipment types, but expects some easing later in April as that urgency fades.

Flatbed Is a Different Story

Flatbed volumes have climbed consistently for a full quarter, Vise noted, making it "a completely different animal" from van and reefer. The 37-cent March rate increase reflects genuine demand growth, not just fuel pass-through. Construction activity, infrastructure spending, and industrial freight are driving the flatbed surge.

Regulatory Pressure Adds Friction

Recent changes to non-domiciled CDL eligibility and increased enforcement around English proficiency requirements are creating additional supply-side friction, according to Raddy Velkov, senior vice president of carrier sales and strategy at BlueGrace Logistics. These regulatory shifts won't flood the market with new capacity anytime soon.

"Another factor that's starting to matter more is the regulatory environment," Velkov said. "Recent changes to non-domiciled CDL eligibility and increased enforcement around English proficiency are likely to create incremental friction on the supply side over time."

Velkov described the current market as having "less room for error" than a year ago. Normal disruptions — weather, fuel spikes, produce season, flatbed scarcity — now move spot pricing and carrier behavior faster because the network is leaner.

Spot Rates Up 30% Year-Over-Year

Uber Freight observed spot rates increase roughly 30% in early 2026 compared to 2025, with a 20% rise when fuel is excluded. The spot market has been tightening sequentially since December, accelerated by winter storms and then the Iran conflict's impact on fuel.

DAT's Logistics Managers Index showed a 50-point gap between Transportation Prices (89.4) and Transportation Capacity in mid-April — the widest spread since 2021, signaling significant market stress.

What this means for carriers: Pricing power is back, but it's fragile. The rate gains are real, but they're built on fuel costs and capacity shrinkage, not surging freight demand. Linehaul rates were still under pressure through most of March, meaning shippers aren't yet paying more for the haul itself — just for the diesel. If fuel stabilizes or demand softens, the floor could shift quickly. For now, the combination of tight capacity, routing guide failures, and elevated fuel gives owner-operators and small fleets leverage they haven't had in years. Use it while it lasts, but don't mistake a fuel-driven spike for a demand-driven recovery. Watch linehaul rates, not just all-in numbers. When those start climbing independent of fuel, the market will have truly turned.