Carrier rejection rates climbing as capacity crunch looms in May

Carrier rejection rates are rising — the earliest signal that capacity is tightening and contracted loads are getting harder to cover. Bernhard Malins, who leads product and engineering at Trimble Transportation, said rejection rates are "typically the earlier indicator of saying like yeah I cannot commit to my contracted loads to the same extent that I want to anymore." He predicted capacity challenges would peak in May, though he acknowledged the situation remains fluid.

"We have not seen the spike yet and that will continue," Malins said during a virtual roundtable hosted by Trimble. "The situation can change daily but in the current trend scenario we will see that situation happening specifically in May."

The comments came as Trimble executives outlined how their carrier-shipper network — now connecting more than 1,500 shippers and retailers with over 180,000 carriers worldwide — is tracking real-time market shifts. For carriers, rejection rate data matters because it shows when peers are walking away from committed freight, often a precursor to rate increases.

What the platform sees

Trimble's network processes data from hundreds of thousands of carriers globally, giving the company visibility into tender acceptance patterns, negotiation behavior, and load commitments. Malins described the platform as a "system of action" that tracks not just what rates are, but "how that rate got along, like how did the negotiation go, who submitted what, when, where is the market right now."

That real-time view allows shippers to reroute trucks, swap carriers, or automatically rebook time slots when disruptions hit. For carriers, it means the platform can surface when market conditions are shifting before those changes show up in published rate indices.

Philip, sector vice president for Trimble's Transporeon business, said the goal is creating an ecosystem where "connected systems share data and shared data then can serve as an equalizer so that all parties in the network actually have the same level of information and they can all react based on the same information to the challenges that then occur."

Fraud vetting and visibility tools

Trimble vets companies before they participate in RFQs or tenders "to make sure that these are real companies," Philip said. Real-time visibility alerts operators to abnormal behavior such as unexpected detours — a defense against double brokering and identity theft schemes that have proliferated in the past two years.

Benchmarking data is fully anonymized, requiring multiple data sources before aggregation to ensure competitive information remains protected. Carriers can see where their rates and service levels sit relative to peers without exposing individual pricing.

North America vs. Europe: different carrier structures

One structural difference between U.S. and European markets: freight brokerage is more prevalent in the United States, while Europe has a larger number of smaller carriers dealing directly with shippers. That changes how data flows and how quickly market signals propagate.

Regulatory fragmentation also creates complexity in Europe. "In the US some standards are more widely adopted," Philip said. "You have the DOT that provides fuel indications. In Europe you have 26 different types of DOTs because every country does this differently."

Malins observed a "way bigger openness in the US to adopt changes on the technological frontier than there is in Europe," though he noted resistance to change is common in both markets.

Anelia Lofti, who leads customer experience for Trimble's Transportation business, said the biggest barrier to digital transformation isn't technology — it's stakeholders and data silos. "Transformation is hard in the daily operations. It is not because of the technology. It is actually because of the amount of stakeholders involved and also the data silos that are there," Lofti said. "Change is hard. So there is definitely also resistance to change."

Case study: Nestlé's 4 million shipments

Nestlé manages approximately 4 million shipments annually across a fragmented setup with different systems and processes in various countries. Limited visibility made coordination difficult both internally and with carriers.

"Together with Nestlé we moved them to a global platform. We integrated to their IT landscape and most importantly what we did is that we enabled the collaboration in that huge global network," Lofti said. The result was fewer manual steps, faster coordination with carriers, and better visibility across regions. Another critical benefit: faster reaction times when disruptions hit.

At AS6, manual freight auditing processes had created skepticism about automation. The company's team feared losing control. "Instead of them losing control they actually did gain control," Lofti said. "It was more transparency, it was better cost control and also more time for actually the high-value work with their customers."

Modular pricing, quick implementations

Trimble's approach eliminates massive upfront investments. "You get started and basically you pay when you get the value extracted from our solution," Malins said. "We are not in there for long implementations that are heavy. We want quick implementations. We want you to have transactions that drive value for you."

For companies evaluating data strategies, Malins offered direct guidance: "Pick your pain points or think about where you can benefit most by changing behavior and then just pick that item."

Lofti emphasized the importance of aligning stakeholders before launching digital transformation initiatives. "We need to make sure that everyone understands and has the same understanding what is the problem we are here to solve," Lofti said. She added that companies should carefully map their current "as-is" processes, which often reveal numerous exceptions.

What this means for carriers: If rejection rates are climbing now and capacity is expected to tighten in May, carriers with available trucks should see stronger negotiating leverage in the next 4–6 weeks. Watch for shippers offering higher rates or more favorable terms to lock in capacity before the crunch hits. The rejection rate signal matters because it precedes rate increases — carriers walking away from contracted loads today often means spot rates rise tomorrow.